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Economic Growth and Forecasts: March 2018

High Growth Continues in the First Quarter

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In the light of fully-released January and partly released February leading indicators, our estimate for the year-on-year GDP growth is 7.5 percent in the first quarter of 2018. We find that this high growth is particularly driven by consumption and investment. Increase in public investment is remarkable. When we look at the seasonally and calendar day adjusted data, in the first quarter we forecast 1.4 % growth for quarteron- quarter GDP growth.

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecasts2018M03