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Economic Growth and Forecasts: February 2018

High Growth in the Last Quarter
Ozan Bakış and Uğurcan Acar

The growth rates in the first two quarters of 2017 (yearly growth rates) were 5.3 percent and 5.4 percent respectively and the third quarter’s growth rate has set a record with 11.1 percent. There has been a consensus that the growth of 2017 would be high but the actual question is how much high growth will it be? For example, will it exceed 7 percent?
In the light of fully-released October, November and December leading indicators, comparing to the same quarter of the previous year we estimate the fourth quarter growth of 2017 at 7.6 percent. We find that this high growth is particularly driven by consumption and investment. When we look at the seasonally and calendar day adjusted data, quarter-on-quarter growth rate is expected to be 1.8. We expect the annual growth rate of GDP to exceed 7 percent.

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecasts2018M02