Economic Growth and Forecasts: November 2017

Remarkable Growth in the Third Quarter

Ozan Bakış and Mine Durmaz Aslan

As we see in print and visual media, the expectations for the third quarter GDP growth are high. As we mentioned in our previous brief, several institutions, especially IMF and World Bank, revised their growth forecasts upwards. We, Betam, already published high forecasts for the GDP growth in first two quarters of 2017. Using the most recent data we predict that this high GDP growth is likely to continue in the third quarter as well. Using fully-released July, August and September series, we keep the quarter-on-quarter growth rate forecast at the level of 1.8 percent and revise the year-on-year growth rate forecast upward to 7.6 percent. The reason behind the upward revision in the quarter-on-quarter growth rate forecast is the production of durable consumption goods and commercial credits are higher in the month of September than we expected.

pdf. EconomicOutlook2017M11