Economic Growth and Forecasts: February 2017

Revival in the Last Quarter

Ozan Bakış and Mine Durmaz

Turkish Statistical Institute has completely changed the system of national accounts due to the revision implemented for the alignment with SNA-2008 and ESA-2010 (see Betam AN 16/203). Since there are differences in definitions, levels, and ratios between old and new series, our old forecasting model largely lost its function. In this research brief, we share our revised forecasting model and its first forecast results. In our first forecast for the fourth quarter all leading indicators point out a recovery in the economy after the recession in the third quarter of 2016. Using fully released October, November and partially released January series, we forecast quarter-on-quarter growth rate to be 2.1 percent, year-on-year growth rate to be 5.7 percent and overall annual growth rate to be 3.0 percent in the last quarter of 2016.

pdf. economicgrowthforecasts2017M02

Labor Market Outlook: February 2017

UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Selin Köksal

Seasonally adjusted labor market data show that nonagricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.2 points and reached 14.1 percent in the period of November 2016. The increase in employment remained limited during the period of November 2016.  The number of people employed in agriculture, construction, services and industry increased by 5 thousand, 9 thousand, 21 thousand and 34 thousand, respectively. On the other hand, the nonagricultural labor force increased by 135 thousand and reached 25 million 710 thousand while the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors grew by 65 thousand and increased to 22 million 85 thousand. As a result, the number of non-agricultural unemployed increased by 70 thousand and reached 3 million 625 thousand. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the non-agricultural unemployment will remain constant at 14,1 percent level in the period of December 2016.

doc. LaborMarketOutlook2017M02

pdf. LaborMarketOutlook2017M02

Labor Market Outlook: January 2017

Seyfettin Gürsel, Melike Kökkızıl  and Selin Köksal 

 Executive Summary

Seasonally adjusted labor market data show that nonagricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.4 points and reached 13.9 percent in the period of October 2016. The unemployment rate has been following an increase trend since May; however, it showed a limited decline in the previous period. In the period of October 2016, the number of people employed in agriculture, and construction declined by 69 thousand and 42 thousand whereas the number of people employed in industry and service sectors increased by 22 and 66 thousand, respectively. Parallel to these developments, nonagricultural labor force increased by 172 thousand and reached 25 million 592 thousand while the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors grew by 46 thousand and increased to 22 million 35 thousand. As a result, the number of non-agricultural unemployed increased by 126 thousand and reached 3 million 557 thousand. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the non-agricultural unemployment will remain constant at 13,9 percent level in the period of November.

doc. LaborMarketOutlook2017M01

pdf. LaborMarketOutlook2017M01