Revival in the Last Quarter
Ozan Bakış and Mine Durmaz
Turkish Statistical Institute has completely changed the system of national accounts due to the revision implemented for the alignment with SNA-2008 and ESA-2010 (see Betam AN 16/203). Since there are differences in definitions, levels, and ratios between old and new series, our old forecasting model largely lost its function. In this research brief, we share our revised forecasting model and its first forecast results. In our first forecast for the fourth quarter all leading indicators point out a recovery in the economy after the recession in the third quarter of 2016. Using fully released October, November and partially released January series, we forecast quarter-on-quarter growth rate to be 2.1 percent, year-on-year growth rate to be 5.7 percent and overall annual growth rate to be 3.0 percent in the last quarter of 2016.
UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Selin Köksal
Seasonally adjusted labor market data show that nonagricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.2 points and reached 14.1 percent in the period of November 2016. The increase in employment remained limited during the period of November 2016. The number of people employed in agriculture, construction, services and industry increased by 5 thousand, 9 thousand, 21 thousand and 34 thousand, respectively. On the other hand, the nonagricultural labor force increased by 135 thousand and reached 25 million 710 thousand while the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors grew by 65 thousand and increased to 22 million 85 thousand. As a result, the number of non-agricultural unemployed increased by 70 thousand and reached 3 million 625 thousand. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the non-agricultural unemployment will remain constant at 14,1 percent level in the period of December 2016.