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Economic Outlook and Forecasts: October 2016

Economic Growth Stagnates in Third Quarter

Ozan Bakış and Mine Durmaz

All leading indicators used for our first growth forecast for the third quarter show that there will be stagnation in the economy. Updated and recently released August and September statistics point out that the economic effects of the failed coup attempt, which are intensely felt in July, are gradually eluded. Although recession is out of question, we can say that slow growth in the second quarter of 2016 continues in the third quarter. In the light of fully released July, August, and partially released September leading indicators, we predict quarter-on-quarter growth rate to be 0.2 percent and year-on-year growth rate to be 2.8 percent.

pdf. economicgrowthforecasts2016m10