Economic Growth & Forecasts: September 2016

Growth Continues to Slow Down

Ozan Bakış and Mine Durmaz

In second quarter of 2016, quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 0.3 percent and year-on-year growth rate of 3.1 percent remained below expectations. Leading indicators do not constitute a positive outlook also for growth in third quarter. Almost all indicators point out that the economy will be downsizing. Especially the decreasing trend in private consumption continues. We predict that even public expenditures and private investments components, which drove the growth in second quarter, will shrink in third quarter. Both import and export are predicted to decline from quarter to quarter. Since the decreasing trend in imports is relatively higher, the contribution of net exports is expected to be positive, albeit too small. In the light of fully released July, partially released August, and September leading indicators, we predict quarter-on-quarter growth rate to be minus 0.2 percent and year-on-year growth rate to be 2.6 percent.

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecasts