Labor Market Outlook: July 2014

NON-AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT STAGNATES

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Ayşenur Acar

Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that non-agricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage point and  reached 11.1 percent in the period of April 2014 compared to the period of March 2014. According to predictions based on the seasonally adjusted application per vacancy statistics calculated using Kariyer.net, non-agricultural unemployment will increase in the period of May 2014.

doc. LaborOutlook2014M07

pdf. LaborOutlook2014M07

 

 

Labor Market Outlook: March 2015

DECREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Mine Durmaz

Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that compared to previous period nonagricultural unemployment rate decreased from 12.7 to 12.5 (0.2 percentage points) in the period of December 2014. Labor market data shows that the increase in nonagricultural employment is larger than that in nonagricultural labor force and thus, nonagricultural unemployment decreases. Betam forecasting model based on Kariyer.net data estimates that nonagricultural employment rate will increase slightly in the period of January 2015.

doc. LaborOutlook2015M03

pdf. LaborOutlook2015M03

 

Labor Market Outlook: February 2015

SLIGHT INCREASE IN NONAGRICULTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Mine Durmaz

Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that nonagricultural unemployment rate has reached 12.8 percent, increasing by 0.1 percentage points in the period of November 2014 compared to the period of October 2014. During last three months, nonagricultural unemployment rate has stagnated at the level of 12.8 percent. In the period of November 2014, employment in manufacturing sector decreased by 80 thousand and employment in services and in construction expanded by 50 and 46 thousand, respectively. According to Betam forecasting model based on Kariyer.net data, nonagricultural unemployment rate will remain constant in the period of December 2014.

doc. LaborOutlook2015M02

pdf. LaborOutlook2015M02

 

HOW DOES CHILDHOOD POVERTY AFFECT FUTURE OUTCOMES OF CHILDREN?

Ayşenur Acar and Bülent Anıl

Hundreds of studies have focused on the measurement of poverty, developed poverty indices and made policy evaluations. However, truly understanding the nature of poverty and developing policies that aim to reduce poverty mostly depend on uncovering the intergenerational linkages of poverty. Using a cross section data obtained from SILC-2011 with a module on intergenerational transmission of disadvantages, we examine whether poverty is transmitted from parents to children. In addition, we analyze the effects of experiencing poverty during childhood on certain future outcomes of children that are closely related to poverty status in the adulthood (such as wage, age for starting work, informality, household size and health status) in Turkey. We find that children growing up in poor economic conditions are more likely to become income poor in the adulthood. This finding shows that there is low intergenerational mobility in income levels in Turkey. Those children start to work at their early ages and earn less, are living in large households. They are also more likely to involve in informal jobs or have a chronicle health problem in the adulthood.

pdf. WorkingPaper#016

AN EVALUATION OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN TURKEY

Barış Soybilgen and Ege Yazgan

Expectations on the future state of the inflation play a critical part in the process of price level determination in the market. Therefore, central banks closely follow the developments in inflation expectations to able to pursue a successful monetary policy. In Turkey, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) asks experts and decision makers from financial and real sectors about their expectations/predictions on the current and the future state of inflation every month to obtain market expectations on inflation. This paper examines these predictions of inflation using techniques of forecasting literature. We analyze both point and sign accuracy of these predictions. Point predictions from CBRT surveys are compared with those obtained from AR models, and tested whether they are statistically different. Sign predictions are tested whether they are valuable to a user. We also test predictions for unbiasedness.

pdf. WorkingPaper#017

Labor Market Outlook: January 2015

NONAGRICULTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT STAGNATED

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Mine Durmaz

Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that nonagricultural unemployment rate remained constant at the level of 12.7 percent. According to the Betam forecasting model based on Kariyer.net data, nonagricultural employment rate will increase in the period of November 2014.

doc. LaborOutlook2015M01

pdf. LaborOutlook2015M01

 

Labor Market Outlook: December 2014

SHARP INCREASE IN NON-AGRICULTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gokce Uysal and Ayşenur Acar

Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that non-agricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points in the period of September 2014 compared to the period of August 2014, and reached 12.8 percent. Even though employment in non-agricultural sectors increased, the increases could not counterbalance strong increases in non-agricultural labor force. Non-agricultural unemployment increased from 11.3 percent to 12.8 percent in the last year. The largest part of the increase occurred in the second part of 2014.

doc. LaborOutlook2014M12

pdf. LaborOutlook2014M12

 

Labor Market Outlook: November 2014

SLIGHT DECLINE IN NON-AGRICULTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT

Seyfettin Gürsel , Zümrüt İmamoğlu and Ayşenur Acar

Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that non-agricultural unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point in the period of August 2014 compared to the period of July 2014, and reached 12.4 percent. Non-agricultural employment increased much more than the non-agricultural labor force, hence non-agricultural unemployment decreased. Increase in non-agricultural employment was due to the increase in manufacturing employment that has been decreasing for a while and the increase in construction employment that has been stagnating. Employment in service sector continues to increase slightly. Consequently, we observe a slight decline in non-agricultural unemployment. Increases in employment are line with economic recovery in the third quarter of 2014. We expect that non-agricultural unemployment will stagnate in the next period.

doc. LaborOutlook2014M11

pdf. LaborOutlook2014M11

 

EXAMINATION OF THE TRANSITIONS OF HOUSEHOLDS INTO AND OUT OF POVERTY IN TURKEY

Ayşenur Acar and Cem Başlevent

Using a balanced panel drawn from Turkstat’s Survey of Income and Living Conditions  (SILC), we aim to identify the main determinants of Turkish households’ entry into and exit from poverty. During the 4 year period (2007-2010) examined, the relative income poverty rate declined moderately, implying that households were more likely to exit than enter poverty. In addition to a descriptive analysis where poor, non-poor, entrant, and exitor households are compared in terms of basic household and household head characteristics, the empirical work involves the estimation of binary choice models that analyze the relative importance of these factors. Our models reveal that the employment status and schooling of the household head and household size are closely associated with poverty status changes. The probability of entry into poverty, for instance, is higher for larger households with many inactive/dependent members. However, model specifications that produce the best fit are the ones that take into account the changes in household composition and the amounts of income types received.

pdf. WorkingPaper#015

THE DYNAMICS OF MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY IN TURKEY

Ayşenur Acar

Over the past 20 years, poverty has conceived as a multidimensional issue, not only one-dimensional issue based on conventional indicators (i.e., income or expenditure). While a relatively huge literature has focused on the dynamic analysis of one-dimensional poverty, little attention has been given to the dynamics of multidimensional poverty. Using a panel data drawn from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC) in the years 2007-2010, this study focuses on the dynamics of multidimensional poverty in Turkey. The purposes of the study are twofold: the first is to identify “poor” in Turkey by proposing a multidimensional poverty measure that incorporates various dimensions closely related to the well-being of individuals (such as labor market, housing, health and living standards), and the second is to investigate how the new measure differs from other existing poverty measures (i.e., income poverty and EU material deprivation) by using random effect probit model. The findings show that the new measure is partially consistent with the other measures and multidimensional poverty decreased during the period under examination. Empirical work reveals that higher years of schooling, homeownership or being a rental/asset income recipient decreases the probability of being multidimensionally poor, while large household size, attachment to agricultural employment or being a social welfare income recipient increases the probability of being multidimensionally poor.

pdf. WorkingPaper#014

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