Growth Review: 2013, 4th Quarter

Seyfettin Gürsel, Zümrüt İmamoğlu ve Barış Soybilgen

GROWTH WITHOUT INVESTMENT

According to data released by TurkStat, real GDP in 2013 increased 4 percent. The growth rate in the previous year was 2.1 percent. Growth accelerated in the first half of 2013, but slowed down gradually during the second half. In the fourth quarter, GDP increased by 0.5 percent from the previous quarter.

In 2013, the two main sources of growth were private consumption and government expenditure. Private investment and exports’ contributions were almost zero, whereas inventory investment contributed positively to the growth. Domestic demand which declined in the previous year revived in 2013. Net exports, which contributed positively to growth in the previous year, turned negative due to excessive gold imports. The ratio of current account deficit to GDP increased from 6.2 percent at the end of 2012 to 7.9 percent at the end of 2013. However, gold excluded current account deficit declined from 6.9 percent to 6.5 percent.

Unlike TurkStat, Betam seasonally adjusts each GDP component separately on a quarterly basis. According to Betam’s analysis, main sources of the growth in the last quarter were private consumption and government expenditure, similar to the rest of the year. Contributions of investment and exports increased but only slightly.

doc. Growth2013Q4

pdf. Growth2013Q4

TWO IN THREE CHILDREN LIVE IN SEVERE MATERIAL DEPRIVATION

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Melike Kökkızıl

According to the European Union standards, two out of every three children in Turkey live in severe material deprivation. In terms of severe material deprivation among children, Turkey falls behind Southern Europe countries as well as countries that are less developed such as  Hungary and Romania. Frequency of severe material deprivation falls to 50-55 percent in western regions in Turkey whereas it increases to 75 percent in its eastern regions. Such high shares make it difficult to pinpoint a high-priority target group for policy, hence, Betam has started using a narrower definition of basic material deprivation.  According to the definition used by Betam, 24.8 percent of children in Turkey live in basic material deprivation.  The share of children living in basic material deprivation falls substantially and rapidly from 2006 to 2010, however there is a small increase in 2011. Child poverty indicates dire circumstances for this as well as the upcoming generations and therefore, fight against to child poverty should move up the priority list among social policies.

doc. ResearchBrief164

pdf. ResearchBrief164

 

CULTURE, RELIGIOSITY AND FEMALE LABOR SUPPLY

Duygu Güner and Gökçe Uysal

Abstract

Does culture affect female labor supply? In this paper, we address this question using a recent approach to measuring the effects of culture on economic outcomes, i.e. the epidemiological approach. We focus on migrants, who come from different cultures, but who share a common economic and institutional set-up today. Controlling for various individual characteristics including parental human capital as well as for current economic and institutional setup, we find that female employment rates in 1970 in a female migrant’s province of origin affects her labor supply behavior in 2008. We also show that it is the female employment rates and not male in the province of origin in 1970 that affects the current labor supply behavior. We also extend the epidemiological approach to analyze the effects of religion on female labor supply. More specifically, we use a proxy of parental religiosity, i.e. share of party votes in 1973 elections in Turkey to study female labor supply in 2008. Our findings indicate that female migrants from provinces that had larger (smaller) shares of the religious party votes in 1973 are less (more) likely to participate in the labor market in 2008. An extended model where both cultural and religiosity proxies are included shows that culture and religiosity have separately significant effects on female labor supply behavior.

pdf. WorkingPaper#013

Labor Market Outlook: February 2014

EMPLOYMENT INCREASED IN MANUFACTURING AND SERVICES

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Ayşenur Acar

Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that non-agricultural unemployment rate remained at 12.1 percent in the period of November 2013. Increases in seasonally adjusted non-agricultural labor force and employment counterbalanced each other, and thus, non-agricultural unemployment remained stagnant. Increases in service employment has been accelerating during this period. Similarly, manufacturing employment that  had been declining for the last five periods increased in this period.

doc. LaborOutlook2014M02

pdf. LaborOutlook2014M02

Economic Outlook & Forecasts

EconomicOutlook2014M02 The Positive Outlook in the Last Quarter Reversed

Zümrüt İmamoğlu and Barış Soybilgen

 In December, seasonally adjusted Industrial Production Index (IPI) remained constant compared to the previous month. Export volume index decreased by 1.6 percent and import volume index increased by 2.8 percent. December data shows that production was not affected by developments in the second half of December. Industrial production accelerated in the last quarter and exports increased slightly more than imports excluding gold trade. However, deteriorations in expectations and financial indicators are striking.

Following December data, Betam’s forecasts for the last quarter remained same. Our quarter on quarter growth forecast for the last quarter is 0.3 percent, and the corresponding year on year (YoY) forecast is 4.8 percent. Our growth forecast for 2013 is 4.2 percent. The current account deficit increased significantly in December. Betam expects the current account deficit to GDP ratio, which was 7.2 percent at the end of third quarter, to increase to 7.9 percent at the end of the year. We expect gold excluded current account deficit to fall from 6.9 percent in 2012 to 6.5 percent in 2013.

PUBLISHED NOTES 

EconomicOutlook2014M01 Economic Outlook Improved in November

EconomicOutlook2013M12 Growth Stagnates in the Last Quarter

EconomicOutlook2013M5  Weak Growth in the First Quarter

EconomicOutlook2013M4 Current Account Deficit Widens as Economy Recovers

 

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