Seyfettin Gürsel and Mine Durmaz
In the last and third research brief studying informal employment, we examine the evolution of informal employment over time. In previous two research briefs, we elaborated its structural determinants and its regional distribution, respectively. We already know that relatively larger shares of manufacturing and services in the employment, higher average education level of labor and higher average firm size are associated with lower level of informal employment. Besides, there is a fluctuating trend in the decrease in informality in recent years due to economic growth and employment growth. While high growth rate and high level of employment accelerate the decline in informality, low growth rate and low level of employment might cease the improvement in informality. Although the economic growth is quite low during the last years of the period under study, decreasing informality during these years might be attributed to large growth in employment in the same period. Nevertheless, in last six months decelerated employment growth accompanied by low GDP growth obscures the direction of changes in informality.
DECREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT
Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Mine Durmaz
Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that compared to previous period nonagricultural unemployment rate decreased from 12.7 to 12.5 (0.2 percentage points) in the period of December 2014. Labor market data shows that the increase in nonagricultural employment is larger than that in nonagricultural labor force and thus, nonagricultural unemployment decreases. Betam forecasting model based on Kariyer.net data estimates that nonagricultural employment rate will increase slightly in the period of January 2015.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN NONAGRICULTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Mine Durmaz
Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that nonagricultural unemployment rate has reached 12.8 percent, increasing by 0.1 percentage points in the period of November 2014 compared to the period of October 2014. During last three months, nonagricultural unemployment rate has stagnated at the level of 12.8 percent. In the period of November 2014, employment in manufacturing sector decreased by 80 thousand and employment in services and in construction expanded by 50 and 46 thousand, respectively. According to Betam forecasting model based on Kariyer.net data, nonagricultural unemployment rate will remain constant in the period of December 2014.
Barış Soybilgen and Ege Yazgan
Expectations on the future state of the inflation play a critical part in the process of price level determination in the market. Therefore, central banks closely follow the developments in inflation expectations to able to pursue a successful monetary policy. In Turkey, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) asks experts and decision makers from financial and real sectors about their expectations/predictions on the current and the future state of inflation every month to obtain market expectations on inflation. This paper examines these predictions of inflation using techniques of forecasting literature. We analyze both point and sign accuracy of these predictions. Point predictions from CBRT surveys are compared with those obtained from AR models, and tested whether they are statistically different. Sign predictions are tested whether they are valuable to a user. We also test predictions for unbiasedness.
Ayşenur Acar and Bülent Anıl
Hundreds of studies have focused on the measurement of poverty, developed poverty indices and made policy evaluations. However, truly understanding the nature of poverty and developing policies that aim to reduce poverty mostly depend on uncovering the intergenerational linkages of poverty. Using a cross section data obtained from SILC-2011 with a module on intergenerational transmission of disadvantages, we examine whether poverty is transmitted from parents to children. In addition, we analyze the effects of experiencing poverty during childhood on certain future outcomes of children that are closely related to poverty status in the adulthood (such as wage, age for starting work, informality, household size and health status) in Turkey. We find that children growing up in poor economic conditions are more likely to become income poor in the adulthood. This finding shows that there is low intergenerational mobility in income levels in Turkey. Those children start to work at their early ages and earn less, are living in large households. They are also more likely to involve in informal jobs or have a chronicle health problem in the adulthood.