Labor Market Outlook: April 2017

A BREAK IN THE INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal , and Mine Durmaz

Seasonally adjusted labor market data show that nonagricultural unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 points and is recorded as 14.1 percent in the period of January 2017.  While the nonagricultural labor force, which had decreased in the previous period, increased by 109 thousand in the period of January 2017, the increase in the nonagricultural employment reached 119 thousand and thus, the number of unemployed people decreased by 10 thousand. The most important reason behind this decrease is a significant increase of 90 thousand in the services sector employment in the period of January 2017 although the services sector employment had decreased in the previous period. Employment increases in industry and construction were limited. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the non-agricultural unemployment will decline to 14.0 percent in the period of February 2017.

doc.LaborMarketOutlook2017M04

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Labor Market Outlook: March 2017

INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal  and Selin Köksal

Seasonally adjusted labor market data show that nonagricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.2 points and reached 14.3 percent in the period of December 2016. We observe employment losses in industry and construction in the period of December 2016. The number of people employed in industry and construction decreased by 51 thousand and 28 thousand respectively, whereas the number of people employed in services and agriculture increased by 4 thousand and 39 thousand. In the period of December 2016, the nonagricultural labor force decreased by 28 thousand and declined to 25 million 637 thousand and the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors decreased by 85 thousand and declined to 21 million 971 thousand. As a result, the number of non-agricultural unemployed increased by 47 thousand and reached 3 million 666 thousand. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the non-agricultural unemployment will remain increase to 14.4 percent level in the period of January 2017.

doc. LaborMarketOutlook2017M03

pdf. LaborMarketOutlook2017M03

Economic Growth and Forecasts: February 2017

Revival in the Last Quarter

Ozan Bakış and Mine Durmaz

Turkish Statistical Institute has completely changed the system of national accounts due to the revision implemented for the alignment with SNA-2008 and ESA-2010 (see Betam AN 16/203). Since there are differences in definitions, levels, and ratios between old and new series, our old forecasting model largely lost its function. In this research brief, we share our revised forecasting model and its first forecast results. In our first forecast for the fourth quarter all leading indicators point out a recovery in the economy after the recession in the third quarter of 2016. Using fully released October, November and partially released January series, we forecast quarter-on-quarter growth rate to be 2.1 percent, year-on-year growth rate to be 5.7 percent and overall annual growth rate to be 3.0 percent in the last quarter of 2016.

pdf. economicgrowthforecasts2017M02

Labor Market Outlook: February 2017

UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Selin Köksal

Seasonally adjusted labor market data show that nonagricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.2 points and reached 14.1 percent in the period of November 2016. The increase in employment remained limited during the period of November 2016.  The number of people employed in agriculture, construction, services and industry increased by 5 thousand, 9 thousand, 21 thousand and 34 thousand, respectively. On the other hand, the nonagricultural labor force increased by 135 thousand and reached 25 million 710 thousand while the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors grew by 65 thousand and increased to 22 million 85 thousand. As a result, the number of non-agricultural unemployed increased by 70 thousand and reached 3 million 625 thousand. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the non-agricultural unemployment will remain constant at 14,1 percent level in the period of December 2016.

doc. LaborMarketOutlook2017M02

pdf. LaborMarketOutlook2017M02

Labor Market Outlook: January 2017

Seyfettin Gürsel, Melike Kökkızıl  and Selin Köksal 

 Executive Summary

Seasonally adjusted labor market data show that nonagricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.4 points and reached 13.9 percent in the period of October 2016. The unemployment rate has been following an increase trend since May; however, it showed a limited decline in the previous period. In the period of October 2016, the number of people employed in agriculture, and construction declined by 69 thousand and 42 thousand whereas the number of people employed in industry and service sectors increased by 22 and 66 thousand, respectively. Parallel to these developments, nonagricultural labor force increased by 172 thousand and reached 25 million 592 thousand while the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors grew by 46 thousand and increased to 22 million 35 thousand. As a result, the number of non-agricultural unemployed increased by 126 thousand and reached 3 million 557 thousand. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the non-agricultural unemployment will remain constant at 13,9 percent level in the period of November.

doc. LaborMarketOutlook2017M01

pdf. LaborMarketOutlook2017M01

 

 

 

Labor Market Outlook: November 2016

UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Selin Köksal

Seasonally adjusted labor market data show that nonagricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points and reached 13.5 percent in the period of August 2016. In this period, number of people employed in agriculture and services increased by 57 and 15 thousand, respectively. On the other hand, there is an employment loss by 30 thousand in manufacturing sector. Parallel to these developments, the number of unemployed in non-agricultural sectors grew by 55 thousand and reached 3 million 404 thousand. The unemployment rate which was 11.8 percent in the period of April 2016 increased by 1.7 percentage points and reached 13,5 percent in August 2016. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the non-agricultural unemployment will remain constant in the period of September.

doc. labormarketoutlook2016m11

pdf. labormarketoutlook2016m11

Economic Outlook and Forecasts: October 2016

Economic Growth Stagnates in Third Quarter

Ozan Bakış and Mine Durmaz

All leading indicators used for our first growth forecast for the third quarter show that there will be stagnation in the economy. Updated and recently released August and September statistics point out that the economic effects of the failed coup attempt, which are intensely felt in July, are gradually eluded. Although recession is out of question, we can say that slow growth in the second quarter of 2016 continues in the third quarter. In the light of fully released July, August, and partially released September leading indicators, we predict quarter-on-quarter growth rate to be 0.2 percent and year-on-year growth rate to be 2.8 percent.

pdf. economicgrowthforecasts2016m10

Economic Growth & Forecasts: September 2016

Growth Continues to Slow Down

Ozan Bakış and Mine Durmaz

In second quarter of 2016, quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 0.3 percent and year-on-year growth rate of 3.1 percent remained below expectations. Leading indicators do not constitute a positive outlook also for growth in third quarter. Almost all indicators point out that the economy will be downsizing. Especially the decreasing trend in private consumption continues. We predict that even public expenditures and private investments components, which drove the growth in second quarter, will shrink in third quarter. Both import and export are predicted to decline from quarter to quarter. Since the decreasing trend in imports is relatively higher, the contribution of net exports is expected to be positive, albeit too small. In the light of fully released July, partially released August, and September leading indicators, we predict quarter-on-quarter growth rate to be minus 0.2 percent and year-on-year growth rate to be 2.6 percent.

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecasts

Labor Market Outlook: October 2016

LARGE EMPLOYMENT LOSSES IN MANUFACTURING

Seyfettin Gürsel Gökçe Uysal and Selin Köksal 

Seasonally adjusted labor market data show that nonagricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.6 percentage points and reached 13.2 percent in the period of July 2016. In this period, the number of people employed in agriculture, services and construction sectors increased by 76 thousand, 21 thousand and 5 thousand respectively. On the other hand, there is an employment loss by 76 thousand in the manufacturing sector. In line with these developments, the number of unemployed in non-agricultural sectors grew by 50 thousand in one month and reached 3 million 327 thousand. The unemployment rate which was 11.8 percent in the period of April 2016 increased by almost 1,5 percentage points and reached 13,2 percent in July 2016. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the increase in non-agricultural unemployment will continue in the period of August.

doc. LaborMarketOutlook2016M10

pdf. LaborMarketOutlook2016M10

 

MIDDLE INCOME TRAP PROBLEM IS STILL ON THE AGENDA

Seyfettin Gürsel, Ozan Bakış and Selin Köksal

Increase in labor productivity showed by far the greatest contribution to Turkey’s high economic growth rates before the global economic crisis (2002-2008). When high growth rates combined with the appreciation of Turkish Lira against US Dollar on a vast scale, the increase in dollar denominated GDP per capita recorded a great jump. Leaving the global economics crisis aside during which GDP decreased, employment rate and labor productivity almost equally contributed to GDP per capita increases during the years of strong exit from crisis (2010-2011). On the other hand, we know that Turkish Economy grew since 2012 between 2-4 percent after having implemented “balanced growth” policies in order to cope with deepening macroeconomic imbalances. This low GDP growth slowed sizably the increase of GDP per capita. During this period, we observe that labor productivity followed a fluctuating course in terms of GDP per capita contribution (first negative then slightly positive). Finally we would like to underline that, due to very limited increase in total labor productivity, the increase in GDP per capita remained very low in the last four years.

doc. researchbrief198

pdf. researchbrief198

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