Growth Review: 2014, 1st Quarter

FOREIGN DEMAND LED GROWTH

Seyfettin Gürsel, Zümrüt İmamoğlu, ve Barış Soybilgen

Turkey’s real GDP increased at a rate of 4.3 percent in the first quarter of 2014 from the same quarter of the previous year. Year-on-year growth in Turkish economy has been above 4.0 percent for the fourth consecutive quarter now and quarter-on-quarter growth accelerated. Seasonally adjusted GDP increased 1.7 percent in the first quarter from the previous quarter. This rate was 0.9 percent in the previous quarter.

Main sources of growth in the first quarter were exports and government spending (qoq). Government spending increased by 4,8 percent and continued its significant contribution to growth since 2012.  Exports increased by 7 percent led by European recovery, while imports fell 2.4 percent. Consumption and investment expenditures, on the other hand, decreased from the previous quarter. Consumption declined 0.5 percent and investment decreased 2.8 percent.

The 12-month current account deficit (CAD) to GDP ratio, which was 7.9 percent at the end of 2013, fell to 7.5 percent at the end of the first quarter. Gold excluded current account deficit fell to 6.4 percent from 6.5 percent.

doc. Growth2014Q1

pdf. Growth2014Q1

Labor Market Outlook: April 2014

UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE DUE TO EMPLOYMENT INCREASES IN CONSTRUCTION AND SERVICES 

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Ayşenur Acar

Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that non-agricultural unemployment rate decreased from 11.6 percent to 11.3 percent (0.3 percentage point decline) in the period of January 2014. Seasonally adjusted labor market series show that employment increased in all sectors. Employment increases in services had slowed down in the third quarter of 2013, but they have accelerated since the last quarter of 2013. Also, we observe that employment increase in construction sector has accelerated since the period of August 2013. It increased from 1 million 672 thousand in the period of July 2013 to 2 million in the period of January 2014.  An increase of approximately 20 percent that is observed in a 6-month period, indicates that the labor market needs to be carefully analyzed.

doc. LaborOutlook2014M04

pdf. LaborOutlook2014M04

Economic Outlook & Forecasts

EconomicOutlook2014M05 Foreign Demand Driven Growth in the First Quarter

Zümrüt İmamoğlu and Barış Soybilgen

 In March, seasonally adjusted Industrial Production Index (IPI) declined by 0.4 percent from the previous month. Export volume index increased by 1.4 percent, whereas the import volume index decreased by 1.5 percent. Indicators show that private consumption and investment declined in the first quarter. The increase in exports though continues to support growth. However, the IPI has been declining for two months, consecutively. Therefore, we revised our growth forecast down slightly. We expect the quarter on quarter (QoQ) growth to be 0.4 percent. The corresponding year on year (YoY) forecast for the first quarter is 3.7 percent.

On the other hand, the current account deficit continues to fall. 12-month rolling current account deficit fell by $2.5 billion in March, and ended up the first quarter at $59.9 billion. We expect the current account deficit to GDP ratio to fall to 7.5 percent at the end of the first quarter and the gold-excluded current account deficit to be 6.4 percent.

PUBLISHED NOTES 

EconomicOutlook2014M04 Export-Led Growth

EconomicOutlook2014M03 Domestic Demand Under Pressure

EconomicOutlook2014M02 The Positive Outlook in the Last Quarter Reversed

EconomicOutlook2014M01 Economic Outlook Improved in November

EconomicOutlook2013M12 Growth Stagnates in the Last Quarter

 

 

TURKEY LABOR MARKET NETWORK MEETING

INVITATION: BETAM ECONOMICS SEMINAR

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