Labor Market Outlook: April 2012
STRONG INCREASE IN NON-AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Ayşenur Acar
According to the labor market statistics released by TurkStat, non-agricultural unemployment rate is 12.4 percent in the period of January 2012. However, we draw attention again to the importance of seasonally adjusted unemployment series in the evaluation of unemployment. Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that non-agricultural unemployment rate decreased from 11.2 percent to 11.1 percent. According to the seasonally adjusted data, the number of unemployed persons in non-agricultural decreased by 20 thousand compared to the period of December 2012 and decreased by 391 thousand compared to December 2011. Employment in all sectors increased in the period of January 2012 compared to the previous period and the strong increase in service sector continues.
doc. April2012
pdf. April2012
LABOR MARKET STATUS BY MOTHER TONGUE
Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal-Kolaşin and Onur Altındağ
Executive Summary
This research note examines the labor market status of populations who are native speakers of Turkish and Kurdish. While the calculated unemployment rates are 8 percent for the population whose mother tongue is Kurdish, this number is 7.5 percent for the population whose mother tongue is Turkish. This small difference is due to differentiation of unemployment rates in rural areas. There are larger differences within urban areas. The share of wage and salary earners in total employment is 38 percent for native speakers of Kurdish, whereas it increases to 57 percent for native speakers of Turkish. This differentiation in the structure of employment is also obviously reflected in social security coverage. Share of employees who are not registered at a social security institution, i.e. share of informal workers in urban areas is 42.1 percent in urban areas in Turkey, however, it is much higher at 66.3 percent in the population whose mother tongue is Kurdish. In other words, the population whose mother tongue is Kurdish is at a deep disadvantage in terms of employment conditions. Without doubt, low education levels and a greater share of self employment among native speakers of Kurdish explain some of these differences.
pdf. ResearchBrief060
doc. ResearchBrief060
Economic Outlook & Forecasts
April 2012 Significant Slowdown in Turkish Economy
Zümrüt İmamoğlu and Barış Soybilgen
In February, the Industrial production index (IPI) increased by 0.7 percent and the export volume index increased by 4.8 percent compared to January while the import volume index decreased by 0.2 percent. Our economic indicators show that economic growth decelerated significantly in the first quarter. The increase in export volume index was the only encouraging development during this month. However, the decline in import volume was limited. Betam’s quarter on quarter (QoQ) growth forecast for the first quarter of 2012 is 0.3 percent. We estimate the corresponding year on year (YoY) growth as 3.5 percent.
Both the trade deficit and the current account deficit fell significantly in February compared to the same month of the last year. Due to high increase in exports, current account deficit decreased by $1.8 billion and fell to $4.2 billion. The 12-month current account deficit fell to $75.3 billion from $77.1 billion. In coming months, we expect that current account deficit will continue to decline and drop to 9.3 percent of GDP at the end of the first quarter.
PUBLISHED NOTES
March 2012 Soft Landing in Turkish Economy
February 2012 Turkey’s Sluggish Slowdown
January 2012 Current Account Deficit Declines
2011
December 2011 Is The Turkish Economy Accelerating Again?
November 2011 Foreign Demand Fuels Economic Growth
October 2011 Sharp drop in investments
September 2011 The Engine of Third Quarter Growth: Exports
August 2011 No Growth in the Second Quarter
July 2011 Turkish Economy Cooles Down
June 2011 Turkey’s GDP Growth to Slow down in the Second Quarter
May 2011 Current Account Deficit Increases despite the Slowdown in the Economy
April 2011 Growth Continues to Decelerate
March 2011 Signs of Deceleration in the First Quarter
February 2011 Exports and Investment Indicators Accelerate in the Last Quarter of 2010
January 2011 Economic Growth Accelerates in the Last Quarter
Growth Review:2011, 4th Quarter
Seyfettin Gürsel, Zümrüt İmamoğlu, Barış Soybilgen
HIGH GROWTH but RAPID DECLINE
According to data released by Turkstat, annual growth of real GDP in Turkey in 2011 was 8.5 percent. This high growth places Turkey as the 3rd amongst the fastest growing countries in G-20, behind China and Argentina. However, growth in the fourth quarter was not as promising. Real GDP increased by only 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 from the previous quarter and the year-on-year (YoY) growth slowed down sharply from 8.4 percent in the third quarter to 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter.
In 2011, the main source of growth was again domestic demand like it was last year. However, while domestic demand accelerated in the first half of 2011, it decelerated in the second half. In the first two quarters, private investment and consumption expenditure made the largest contribution to real GDP growth, but in the third and fourth quarters, private investment and consumption expenditure slowed down and net exports contributed positively. The divergence between foreign and domestic demand shows that “soft landing” has begun in the economy. However, even though the increase in the current account deficit came to a stop in the fourth quarter, the ratio of current account deficit to GDP has reached a record-high 10 percent.
In the fourth quarter, the slowdown can be seen in almost all components of GDP. The decline in the GDP growth was mainly caused by the fall in private consumption expenditure. This was followed by a slowdown in investment demand and a decrease in government expenditures. Net exports contributed positively to the real GDP growth, exports decelerated, but imports decreased significantly.
Betam’s and Turkstat’s seasonal and calendar day adjusted annual GDP growth numbers are very close to each other, but quarter on quarter (QoQ) GDP growth numbers show differences. Betam’s QoQ GDP growth for the fourth quarter was -0.4 percent. It means that real GDP didn’t just slow down, but also contracted.
pdf. Growth 2011 4.Q
doc. Growth 2011 4.Q
Labor Market Outlook: March 2012
DECREASE IN NON-AGRICULTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT HAS CONTINUED
Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Ayşenur Acar
According to the labor market statistics released by TurkStat, non-agricultural unemployment rate is 12 percent in the period of December 2011. Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that non-agricultural unemployment rate decreased to 11.2 percent. According to the seasonally adjusted data, the correction that we had been expecting in construction continues and agricultural employment decreased by 107 thousand during December 2011.
pdf. March 2012
doc. March 2012
