Panel on “Human Rights, Constitutions and Ecology”
Betam, Center for Economic and Social Research will organize a panel entitled “Human Rights, Constitutions and Ecology” on May 16th 2013
Prof. John Bonine, Professor of Law at the University of.Oregon will give a presentation on Human Rights and the Environment; Serkan Köybaşı, research assistant at the BahçeşehirUniversityLaw School will give a talk on Ecological Constitutions and Gonca Yılmaz attorney from İstanbul Bar Assocation will organize a workshop on “Right to Information.
Date: May 16th 2013
Place: B CEP
Time: 15:30 -17:30
Economic Outlook & Forecasts
EconomicOutlook2013M4 Current Account Deficit Widens as Economy Recovers
Zümrüt İmamoğlu and Barış Soybilgen
In February, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) increased by 1.5 percent from January. Export volume index increased by 5.1 percent and import volume index increased by 2.6 percent. The increase in the IPI in February turned the quarterly outlook of the IPI from stagnant to positive. As exports recovered its losses in December and January and imports continued increasing, the first quarter growth seems more promising. Betam increased its quarter on quarter (QoQ) forecast for the first quarter from 0.5 percent to 0.7 percent. The corresponding year on year (YoY) growth rate is 2.4 percent.
In January, the trade deficit was almost stagnant, increasing only $0,2 billion. In February, it increased by $1 billion over the same month of last year, reaching $6.9 billion. The current account deficit (CAD) also followed, increasing up to $5.1 billion in February. As a result, the 12-month CAD increased significantly for the first time since October 2011 and reached $48.4 billion. Betam expects the current account deficit to GDP ratio to stay at 6 percent at the end of the first quarter, same as the previous quarter.
PUBLISHED NOTES
EconomicOutlook2013M3 Weak Revıval
February_2013 Hard Landing in Turkish Economy
January 2013 REVIVAL IS BECOMING CLEAR
December 2012 Revival in the 4th quarter
November_2012 Slowdown Continued in the Third Quarter
October 2012 Economy Continues to Slowdown
Growth Review:2012, 4th Quarter
Seyfettin Gürsel, Zümrüt İmamoğlu ve Barış Soybilgen
LANDING WAS HARDER THAN EXPECTED
According to data released by Turkstat, Turkey’s real GDP remained stagnant in the fourth quarter of 2012 from the previous quarter. Moreover, annual growth of real GDP in 2012 was 2.2 percent. Turkish economy has been continuously slowing down for the last two years. Real GDP growth which was 12.4 percent in the first quarter of 2011 fell to 1.4 percent in the last quarter of 2012.
In 2012, the main source of growth was net exports whereas domestic demand was the main source in the previous year. Domestic demand subtracted from the growth in 2012. Rebalancing between net foreign and domestic demand reduced the current account deficit to 6 percent, but the annual growth ended up much lower than expected. What the Central Bank called a soft landing in the economy was rather hard at the end of the year.
Betam’s and Turkstat’s seasonal and calendar day adjusted annual GDP growth numbers are close, but quarter on quarter (QoQ) GDP growth numbers differ due to methodological differences. Betam’s QoQ GDP growth estimate for the fourth quarter was 0.9 percent when seasonal adjustment is done separately for each component of GDP. The main source of quarterly growth was net exports and government expenditures. On the other hand, consumption and private investment expenditure declined.
doc. Growth2012Q4
pdf. Growth2012Q4
Labor Market Outlook: March 2013
STRONG INCREASES CONTINUE BOTH IN EMPLOYMENT AND IN LABOR FORCE
Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Ayşenur Acar
According to the labor market data released by TurkSTAT, we observe sizeable increases in non-agricultural employment. However, unemployment on a year-on-year basis increased due to strong increases in labor force. Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that the monthly unemployment rate has been stagnating. Non-agricultural unemployment rate remains at its previous level in the period of December 2012, i.e. it is still at 11.8 percent. Application per vacancy calculated by using Kariyer.net series indicates that stagnation in the non-agricultural unemployment rate will continue.
doc. March_ 2013
pdf. March_ 2013
Labor Market Outlook: February 2013
INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES
Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Ayşenur Acar
Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that non-agricultural unemployment increased from 11.6 percent in October 2012 to 11.8 percent in November 2012. Despite the strong increase in non-agricultural employment, stronger increase in non-agricultural labor force leads to an increase in non-agricultural unemployment. Slow but sustainable increasing trend in non-agricultural unemployment that we have been observing since February 2012 continues. Data released by Kariyer.net shows that the slow increase in unemployment might continue in the next period.
doc. February_2013
pdf. February 2013
