Duygu Güner and Gökçe Uysal


Does culture a ect female labor supply? In this paper, we address this question using a recent approach to measuring the e ects of culture on economic outcomes, i.e. the epidemiological approach. We focus on migrants, who come from di erent cultures, but who share a common economic and institutional set-up today. Controlling for various individual characteristics including parental human capital as well as for current economic and institutional setup, we nd that female employment rates in 1970 in a female migrant’s province of origin a ects her labor supply behavior in 2008. We also show that it is the female employment rates and not male in the province of origin in 1970 that a ects the current labor supply behavior. We also extend the epidemiological approach to analyze the e ects of religion on female labor supply. More speci cally, we use a proxy of parental
religiosity, i.e. share of party votes in 1973 elections in Turkey to study female labor supply in 2008. Our ndings indicate that female migrants from provinces that had larger (smaller) shares of the religious party votes in 1973 are less (more) likely to participate in the labor market in 2008. An extended model where both cultural and religiosity proxies are included shows that culture and religiosity have separately signi cant e ects on female
labor supply behavior.

pdf. WorkingPaper#013

Labor Market Outlook: February 2014


Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Ayşenur Acar

Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that non-agricultural unemployment rate remained at 12.1 percent in the period of November 2013. Increases in seasonally adjusted non-agricultural labor force and employment counterbalanced each other, and thus, non-agricultural unemployment remained stagnant. Increases in service employment has been accelerating during this period. Similarly, manufacturing employment that  had been declining for the last five periods increased in this period.

doc. LaborOutlook2014M02

pdf. LaborOutlook2014M02

Economic Outlook & Forecasts

EconomicOutlook2014M02 The Positive Outlook in the Last Quarter Reversed

Zümrüt İmamoğlu and Barış Soybilgen

 In December, seasonally adjusted Industrial Production Index (IPI) remained constant compared to the previous month. Export volume index decreased by 1.6 percent and import volume index increased by 2.8 percent. December data shows that production was not affected by developments in the second half of December. Industrial production accelerated in the last quarter and exports increased slightly more than imports excluding gold trade. However, deteriorations in expectations and financial indicators are striking.

Following December data, Betam’s forecasts for the last quarter remained same. Our quarter on quarter growth forecast for the last quarter is 0.3 percent, and the corresponding year on year (YoY) forecast is 4.8 percent. Our growth forecast for 2013 is 4.2 percent. The current account deficit increased significantly in December. Betam expects the current account deficit to GDP ratio, which was 7.2 percent at the end of third quarter, to increase to 7.9 percent at the end of the year. We expect gold excluded current account deficit to fall from 6.9 percent in 2012 to 6.5 percent in 2013.


EconomicOutlook2014M01 Economic Outlook Improved in November

EconomicOutlook2013M12 Growth Stagnates in the Last Quarter

EconomicOutlook2013M5  Weak Growth in the First Quarter

EconomicOutlook2013M4 Current Account Deficit Widens as Economy Recovers


Labor Market Outlook: January 2014


Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Ayşenur Acar

Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that non-agricultural unemployment rate decreased from 12.5 percent to 12.1 percent (0.4 percentage points) in the period of October 2013 compared to the period of September 2013. This unexpected decline was due to the large increase in non-agricultural employment, most of which was in the construction sector. Seasonally adjusted employment increased by 99 thousand from the period of September 2013 to the period of October 2013. Hence, unemployment rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points. Consequently, seasonally adjusted non-agricultural unemployment rate increased from 11.4 percent in October 2013 to 11.9 percent in September 2013.

doc. LaborOutlook2014M01

pdf. LaborOutlook2014M01


Seyfettin Gürsel and Melike Kökkızıl

Executive Summary

Inflation calculated by Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) captures inflation faced by a representative household since it covers all income and expenditure groups in Turkey. However, inflation faced by households of different income and expenditure groups may differ since different groups consume different baskets of goods and services. In this research brief, different price indices are calculated for each income quintile from the poorest to richest by using consumption data from the Household Budget Surveys (HBS) released by TurkStat for the period 2003-2013. The results indicate that poorer households considerably face higher inflation rates than richer ones in the last six years. The poorest households (the lowest income quintile) face higher inflation levels since price increases in food are above average increase in prices during this period. While the inflation difference between the top income quintile and the lowest evolved in favor of the poor householdsfrom 2003 to 2006, inflation difference between the poor and the rich has reached 13 percent pointsagainst the poor households by the end of 2013 due to the global food price shocks.

doc. ResearchBrief162

pdf. ResearchBrief162


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