{"id":6595,"date":"2017-02-28T09:29:18","date_gmt":"2017-02-28T07:29:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr\/?p=6595\/"},"modified":"2017-05-29T16:39:27","modified_gmt":"2017-05-29T14:39:27","slug":"economic-outlook-and-forecasts-february-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr\/en\/2017\/02\/economic-outlook-and-forecasts-february-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Growth and Forecasts: February 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Revival in the Last Quarter<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ozan Bak\u0131\u015f and Mine Durmaz<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Turkish Statistical Institute has completely changed the system of\u00a0national accounts due to the revision implemented for the alignment\u00a0with SNA-2008 and ESA-2010 (see Betam AN 16\/203). Since there are\u00a0differences in definitions, levels, and ratios between old and new series,\u00a0our old forecasting model largely lost its function. In this research brief,\u00a0we share our revised forecasting model and its first forecast results.\u00a0In our first forecast for the fourth quarter all leading indicators point\u00a0out a recovery in the economy after the recession in the third quarter\u00a0of 2016. Using fully released October, November and partially released\u00a0January series, we forecast quarter-on-quarter growth rate to be 2.1\u00a0percent, year-on-year growth rate to be 5.7 percent and overall annual\u00a0growth rate to be 3.0 percent in the last quarter of 2016.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>pdf.\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/economicgrowthforecasts2017M02-1.pdf\">economicgrowthforecasts2017M02<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Revival in the Last Quarter Ozan Bak\u0131\u015f and Mine Durmaz Turkish Statistical Institute has completely changed the system of\u00a0national accounts due to the revision implemented for the alignment\u00a0with SNA-2008 and ESA-2010 (see Betam AN 16\/203). Since there are\u00a0differences in definitions, levels, and ratios between old and new series,\u00a0our old forecasting model largely lost its function. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[283,275,278],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economic-growth-and-forecasts","category-economic-research","category-publications"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6595","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6595"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6595\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6603,"href":"https:\/\/betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6595\/revisions\/6603"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6595"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6595"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6595"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}