MATERIAL DEPRIVATION INCREASES AMONG THE FEMALE-HEADED HOUSEHOLDS

Gökçe Uysal and Selin Köksal

The status of female-headed households is an important topic addressed by academic research and policymakers in terms of both gender equality and equality of opportunities for future generations. According to the 2015 wave of the Survey of Income and Living Conditions, the material deprivation is becoming more prevalent. The ratio of female-headed households that suffer from material deprivation increased from 31 percent in 2014 to 37.9 percent in 2015. During this period, the ratio of female-headed households that cannot cover unexpected expenses increased to 45.6 percent. Moreover, the ratio of female-headed households that cannot meet their weekly protein needs increased to 45.9 percent. In addition, the ratio of female-headed households that cannot sufficiently heat up their homes rose from 20.6 percent to 26.9 percent. This strong deterioration in material deprivation rates indicate that female-headed households need specifically designed policies.  However, policymakers should pay attention not to weaken women’s labor market attachments while designing policies for female-headed households.

doc. ResearchBrief206

pdf. ResearchBrief206

 

WHO TAKES CARE OF THE CHILDREN? FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION AND GENDER

Hande Paker and Gökçe Uysal

In this research brief, we focus on how childcare tasks are shared among parents. The distribution of childcare tasks is studied in relation to female labor force participation decisions. Our data shows that the childcare in Turkey is mainly determined by gender inequality. The sharing of childcare tasks is not only strikingly unfair from the point of women but also deprives children of their father’s contribution to their development. For example, even among the women in the labor force, half of the women state that they have the sole responsibility of changing diapers. This share increases to 80 percent when women who usually are doing this task are included. Similar results were found in the tasks of feeding and preparing children. As children grow up and hence childcare tasks change, the share of women mentioning an equal share of childcare tasks among partners, increase.  However, even in tasks where women report high equal sharing, the share stays below 40 percent.

doc. ResearchBrief202

pdf. ResearchBrief202

 

Labor Market Outlook: April 2017

A BREAK IN THE INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal , and Mine Durmaz

Seasonally adjusted labor market data show that nonagricultural unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 points and is recorded as 14.1 percent in the period of January 2017.  While the nonagricultural labor force, which had decreased in the previous period, increased by 109 thousand in the period of January 2017, the increase in the nonagricultural employment reached 119 thousand and thus, the number of unemployed people decreased by 10 thousand. The most important reason behind this decrease is a significant increase of 90 thousand in the services sector employment in the period of January 2017 although the services sector employment had decreased in the previous period. Employment increases in industry and construction were limited. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the non-agricultural unemployment will decline to 14.0 percent in the period of February 2017.

doc.LaborMarketOutlook2017M04

pdf. LaborMarketOutlook2017M04

 

 

 

Labor Market Outlook: March 2017

INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal  and Selin Köksal

Seasonally adjusted labor market data show that nonagricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.2 points and reached 14.3 percent in the period of December 2016. We observe employment losses in industry and construction in the period of December 2016. The number of people employed in industry and construction decreased by 51 thousand and 28 thousand respectively, whereas the number of people employed in services and agriculture increased by 4 thousand and 39 thousand. In the period of December 2016, the nonagricultural labor force decreased by 28 thousand and declined to 25 million 637 thousand and the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors decreased by 85 thousand and declined to 21 million 971 thousand. As a result, the number of non-agricultural unemployed increased by 47 thousand and reached 3 million 666 thousand. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the non-agricultural unemployment will remain increase to 14.4 percent level in the period of January 2017.

doc. LaborMarketOutlook2017M03

pdf. LaborMarketOutlook2017M03

Economic Growth and Forecasts: February 2017

Revival in the Last Quarter

Ozan Bakış and Mine Durmaz

Turkish Statistical Institute has completely changed the system of national accounts due to the revision implemented for the alignment with SNA-2008 and ESA-2010 (see Betam AN 16/203). Since there are differences in definitions, levels, and ratios between old and new series, our old forecasting model largely lost its function. In this research brief, we share our revised forecasting model and its first forecast results. In our first forecast for the fourth quarter all leading indicators point out a recovery in the economy after the recession in the third quarter of 2016. Using fully released October, November and partially released January series, we forecast quarter-on-quarter growth rate to be 2.1 percent, year-on-year growth rate to be 5.7 percent and overall annual growth rate to be 3.0 percent in the last quarter of 2016.

pdf. economicgrowthforecasts2017M02

Labor Market Outlook: February 2017

UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Selin Köksal

Seasonally adjusted labor market data show that nonagricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.2 points and reached 14.1 percent in the period of November 2016. The increase in employment remained limited during the period of November 2016.  The number of people employed in agriculture, construction, services and industry increased by 5 thousand, 9 thousand, 21 thousand and 34 thousand, respectively. On the other hand, the nonagricultural labor force increased by 135 thousand and reached 25 million 710 thousand while the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors grew by 65 thousand and increased to 22 million 85 thousand. As a result, the number of non-agricultural unemployed increased by 70 thousand and reached 3 million 625 thousand. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the non-agricultural unemployment will remain constant at 14,1 percent level in the period of December 2016.

doc. LaborMarketOutlook2017M02

pdf. LaborMarketOutlook2017M02

Labor Market Outlook: January 2017

Seyfettin Gürsel, Melike Kökkızıl  and Selin Köksal 

 Executive Summary

Seasonally adjusted labor market data show that nonagricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.4 points and reached 13.9 percent in the period of October 2016. The unemployment rate has been following an increase trend since May; however, it showed a limited decline in the previous period. In the period of October 2016, the number of people employed in agriculture, and construction declined by 69 thousand and 42 thousand whereas the number of people employed in industry and service sectors increased by 22 and 66 thousand, respectively. Parallel to these developments, nonagricultural labor force increased by 172 thousand and reached 25 million 592 thousand while the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors grew by 46 thousand and increased to 22 million 35 thousand. As a result, the number of non-agricultural unemployed increased by 126 thousand and reached 3 million 557 thousand. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the non-agricultural unemployment will remain constant at 13,9 percent level in the period of November.

doc. LaborMarketOutlook2017M01

pdf. LaborMarketOutlook2017M01

 

 

 

Labor Market Outlook: November 2016

UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Selin Köksal

Seasonally adjusted labor market data show that nonagricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points and reached 13.5 percent in the period of August 2016. In this period, number of people employed in agriculture and services increased by 57 and 15 thousand, respectively. On the other hand, there is an employment loss by 30 thousand in manufacturing sector. Parallel to these developments, the number of unemployed in non-agricultural sectors grew by 55 thousand and reached 3 million 404 thousand. The unemployment rate which was 11.8 percent in the period of April 2016 increased by 1.7 percentage points and reached 13,5 percent in August 2016. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the non-agricultural unemployment will remain constant in the period of September.

doc. labormarketoutlook2016m11

pdf. labormarketoutlook2016m11

Economic Outlook and Forecasts: October 2016

Economic Growth Stagnates in Third Quarter

Ozan Bakış and Mine Durmaz

All leading indicators used for our first growth forecast for the third quarter show that there will be stagnation in the economy. Updated and recently released August and September statistics point out that the economic effects of the failed coup attempt, which are intensely felt in July, are gradually eluded. Although recession is out of question, we can say that slow growth in the second quarter of 2016 continues in the third quarter. In the light of fully released July, August, and partially released September leading indicators, we predict quarter-on-quarter growth rate to be 0.2 percent and year-on-year growth rate to be 2.8 percent.

pdf. economicgrowthforecasts2016m10

Labor Market Outlook: October 2016

LARGE EMPLOYMENT LOSSES IN MANUFACTURING

Seyfettin Gürsel Gökçe Uysal and Selin Köksal 

Seasonally adjusted labor market data show that nonagricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.6 percentage points and reached 13.2 percent in the period of July 2016. In this period, the number of people employed in agriculture, services and construction sectors increased by 76 thousand, 21 thousand and 5 thousand respectively. On the other hand, there is an employment loss by 76 thousand in the manufacturing sector. In line with these developments, the number of unemployed in non-agricultural sectors grew by 50 thousand in one month and reached 3 million 327 thousand. The unemployment rate which was 11.8 percent in the period of April 2016 increased by almost 1,5 percentage points and reached 13,2 percent in July 2016. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the increase in non-agricultural unemployment will continue in the period of August.

doc. LaborMarketOutlook2016M10

pdf. LaborMarketOutlook2016M10

 

Next Page »