Economic Growth and Forecasts: May 2017

Exports Boom in the First Quarter

Ozan Bakış and Mine Durmaz

In the previous economic growth and forecasts research brief, we claimed that a revival was expected in the first quarter of 2017. Using fully released first quarter series the result of our second forecast is quite similar to the first one. Compared to our first research brief; we observe a slight decrease in the contribution of consumption and foreign trade leading indicators to the growth and a slight increase in the contribution of investment leading indicators to the growth. The depreciation of Turkish Lira (TL) against US dollars causes a significant decrease in the consumer and investment goods imports. Using fully-released February, March and April series, we forecast quarter-on-quarter growth rate to be 1.6 percent, year-on-year growth rate to be 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2017.

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecasts2017M05