Revival in the Last Quarter
Ozan Bakış and Mine Durmaz
Turkish Statistical Institute has completely changed the system of national accounts due to the revision implemented for the alignment with SNA-2008 and ESA-2010 (see Betam AN 16/203). Since there are differences in definitions, levels, and ratios between old and new series, our old forecasting model largely lost its function. In this research brief, we share our revised forecasting model and its first forecast results. In our first forecast for the fourth quarter all leading indicators point out a recovery in the economy after the recession in the third quarter of 2016. Using fully released October, November and partially released January series, we forecast quarter-on-quarter growth rate to be 2.1 percent, year-on-year growth rate to be 5.7 percent and overall annual growth rate to be 3.0 percent in the last quarter of 2016.